Not without unicorn farts. Or put another way, God help California if they do

Can California achieve its goal of 1.5 million zero emission cars on the road by 2025?

The state now has more than 284,000 ZEVs on its roads and there are over 20 models in the marketplace. Officials point to a number of state and private programs to expand that number over the next eight years. 

A number of points here:

First: the time to charge an EV's battery ranges from 6-8 hours for conventional chargers to 40 minutes using a DC high-speed charger. Leaving aside what, exactly, drivers are expected to do during those 40 minutes - one can hang out a convenience  store dining on pretzel nuggets for so long - how large are these charging stations going to be? Filling up a gas tank takes, say, 5 minutes, meaning each pump can accommodate 12 cars an hour. A high speed charger can serve 1.5 cars in that same time. Assuming 10 pumps at a gas station, 120 cars can be fueled in an hour vs 15 EVs; it's going to take 50 chargers to accommodate the same number of vehicles. Charger stations will rival in size the solar panel farms created to serve them. Try running those by your local zoning boards.

Second point: California, particularly Southern California gets really, really hot, and EVs' mileage range plunges in temperatures over 75 degrees (and pretty much ceases working below 25 degrees - the Chevy Volt doesn't even try, and automatically turns on its engine, instead, something to be forbidden by California, because your car won't have one). That's something for New England drivers and California skiers to think about. And would you like to use your air conditioner on one of those hot days? Good luck with that: your range is going to drop still further (and again, for New Englanders, your choice is between heating your car or driving it).  

Third point: it can take 3-4 hours to drive cross-town in LA. I don't put it past California voters and legislatures to force sweaty people to wait in those traffic jams with their windows down, which probably serves them right, but that particular feature isn't going to help sell 1.5 million battery cars to residents.

Final point (until I think of another one): it's my understanding that, as the elite have forced the middle class out of cities like San Francisco, 90-mile commutes or longer are becoming quite common. The range of EVs won't permit that (only San Franciscans are allowed to own Teslas), and I suspect this is deliberate on the part of the greens: force everyone onto buses. Again, a feature that won't endear these toys to potential buyers.

So will California achieve its goal? Hardly likely. Fortunately, the $200 million bullet train will surely be ready in 8 years, to whisk Californians from Bakersfield to Fresno (or somewhere) and that will constitute a moral victory in itself.


Will lightning strike twice?



18 Cedarwood Drive listed at $5.605 million in 2005 and sold in 10 days for $5.850. Now the "winners" of that bidding war have listed it for $6.250 million. Personally, I've never been wild about Cedarwood, and when I saw this house 12 years ago I concluded that not every house built in 1930 was necessarily a triump of architectural genius.

Still, it sits on 2.5 very nice acres and is close to town, so I guess I wouldn't be terribly surprised if there are other opinions out there.

Lucas Point continues to impress



5 Middle Way, a 1909 home in great, renovated shape with a large (for Old Greenwich - 0.6 acre) was listed for $4.995 million 22 days ago and today reports a contract. Last time it came on the market was 2005, when it sold for full asking price: $4.195 in just 12 days.

I've said here before that Lucas is my favorite Old Greenwich neighborhood and obviously, other people agree.



(Another) price cut

9 Game Cock Road

9 Game Cock Road

9 Game Cock Road has been on the market for 695 days now and remains unsold. New construction, it started at $3.849 and today's been marked down to $2.999. Nice enough home, especially at high tide, but it's cheek-by-jowl to the boat storage area of the Byram marina, and that may hurt its chance (I'd have no objection to that location, but I'm not in the market for a $3 million home). 

I'd hate to be a spec builder of a multi-million dollar house that I couldn't sell for almost 700 days. Ouch.