I was going to post on this yesterday but didn't, because of its length; now Instapundit's picked it up, so if you missed his post, you might want to read it now

Mathew Continetti, Free Beacon:

How Donald Trump’s 2024 Campaign Bounced Back

I remain convinced that Trump’s nomination will subject the country to four more years of Democratic permanent ruin, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. So far as I can tell from his writings over the years, Continetti is neither an anti-Trumper, nor a Trumpette, but he offers a neutral, objective view here of what he sees happening.

Donald Trump spent the final months of 2022 reeling from electoral setbacks and media disasters. Many of his high-profile endorsements in the midterm elections flopped. His attacks on popular GOP governors in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Georgia did little damage to their reputations. His 2024 campaign launch was a snooze. His infamous and inexcusable dinner at Mar-a-Lago with high-profile anti-Semites put him on the political fringe. By the end of last year, Trump appeared to be fading from the national conversation. His chances of winning the Republican nomination seemed to dim.

Now those chances are brightening. Trump continues to dominate in polls of Republicans. He's drawn even with President Biden in head-to-head matchups. He lobbied successfully for Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) to become speaker of the House of Representatives. His loyalists on the House Judiciary, Oversight, and Weaponization of the Federal Government committees will be sure to advance his interests. He's plotting his return to Facebook, Instagram, and possibly Twitter, and his connection with the Republican base remains strong.

Most important of all, Trump's rivals in both the Democratic and Republican parties are repeating the mistakes they made in the run-up to the 2016 election. The Democrats assume that there is no way for Trump to become president, while Republicans believe he will fade from the scene. Their failure to learn from history has made it possible not only for Trump to win the GOP nomination for the third straight time, but to pull another inside straight in the Electoral College and return to the White House. For decades, Trump has said that the political class is corrupt, insular, and incompetent, and that Republican leaders lack guts. Washington is doing its best to prove him right.

There’s much more to his argument, and it’s worth reading in its entirety; after all it’s Saturday; what else are you doing?