It could be an interesting week

New IAEA Report Details Secret Nuclear Work by Iran as Western Powers Mull Declaration

Donald Trump's efforts to reach an agreement with Iran on ending its nuclear program just got a lot more complicated. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a "comprehensive" report on Iran's nuclear program requested by the agency's 35-member board. The report confirmed that Iran had been carrying out clandestine nuclear activity at three sites long suspected of conducting weapons research. It also concluded that Iran had vastly increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), spinning up 50% more as of May 17 than they had previously reported. That translates into the capability to construct up to nine nuclear bombs.

The IAEA report said that Iran is now “the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce such material."  The IAEA added that this was of "serious concern."

The U.S. has held five meetings with Qatari diplomats who are serving as intermediaries between the U.S. and Iran, aiming to avoid direct talks. Little substantive progress has been made. The two sides appear to be hopelessly deadlocked on the key issue of whether Iran should have a nuclear enrichment program at all. Iran sees U.S. insistence that  Iran give up enrichment as a non-starter since it believes its nuclear program is now part of its national identity.

It's hard to see how Trump can continue negotiations after the IAEA report. The Western nations are preparing a resolution that would find Iran in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran will likely withdraw from the NPT, which means that the minimal cooperation it has been providing to the IAEA will likely come to an end.

Last week, Israel was prepared to strike Iran's nuclear facilities but backed off when the U.S. requested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hold off to give U.S. negotiators a chance to strike a deal with Tehran.

Now, the IAEA report makes that a moot issue.

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When Iran first began to enrich uranium, they were using homegrown centrifuges. These machines spin at fantastically high rates of speed, creating centrifugal force, which enables the separation of uranium-235 from uranium-238. U-235 is the primary substance used to create a nuclear bomb.

These IR-1 centrifuges took weeks to separate enough U235 to enrich uranium to the 3% needed to run a nuclear reactor. It would take months to spin up the uranium to bomb-grade.

In 2015, Barack Obama had an opportunity to halt Iran's nuclear program in its tracks by refusing to allow Tehran to improve the efficiency of its centrifuges. Iran refused, and in his eagerness for an ephemeral foreign policy win, Obama agreed to allow the upgrades. 

Today, Iran uses highly advanced IR-6 centrifuges that can easily spin up uranium to 60%. There are no commercial uses for 60% enriched uranium, although it can sometimes be used in research. Those same centrifuges can spin up that 60% enriched uranium to the 90% needed for a nuclear bomb in a matter of days. 

Iran has passed the nuclear threshold. Israel is prepared to strike, probably using American "bunker-busting" bombs and American mission support. Nuclear talks with Tehran are a bust, and Iran has never been weaker.

It would appear that Trump is out of options and that if we're going to deliver a blow to Iran's nuclear program, which they will spend years recovering from, the time is now.

I’m not sure I agree with the author’s seeming enthusiasm for this development, but it does seem likely that Israel, who has always taken the position that a nuclear-armed Iran would not be tolerated, is ready to go. And from what I’ve read, Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia may scream and yell for public consumption, but will be not-so-secretly-delighted if Israel acts; they have no more wish to see a nuclear arsenal in a Shia country run by madmen than Israel does.