Is there anything true in what the government and its media scribes say, about anything? Not so far, but there’s always next century.

media Bullshit meter

media Bullshit meter

Were blacks disproportionately impacted by COVID? Powerline breaks down the numbers, and the answer won’t surprise you

Excerpts:

The claim that COVID-19 has disproportionately impacted people of color is often heard and rarely, if ever, disputed. It is one of many instances where politicians and activists identify “white privilege” and use that concept as a basis for policy. 

Here in Minnesota, it has been widely reported that minorities, and especially blacks, have suffered from COVID to an extent several times greater than whites. This claim, frequently repeated and never questioned in the press, has been the basis for potentially discriminatory actions by the Walz administration. But is the assertion of disproportionate impact true? 

In December 2020, a group of sociologists and others at the University of Minnesota produced a study that gave initial impetus to the idea that COVID devastated minority communities. Its sensational conclusion was that black Minnesotans died from COVID at a rate more than five times that of white Minnesotans, while latinos in Minnesota died from COVID at a rate more than four times that of whites, when adjusted for age. 

This startling conclusion garnered considerable publicity, all of it uncritical. Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota donated $5 million to the University of Minnesota to establish a Center for Antiracism Research and Health Equity. In announcing this grant, the university’s press release said, “During the pandemic, Black Minnesotans are dying from COVID-19 at a rate five times higher than white Minnesotans when adjusted for age.” ….

Can that claim possibly be true? The sociologists’ study itself acknowledged obvious facts to the contrary: 

“Non-Hispanic white Minnesotans account for about 80 percent of the state’s population and about 82 percent of its COVID-19 deaths. This seeming lack of disparity may be surprising, especially at a time when Minnesota has received national attention for its deep racial divide following the police killing of George Floyd.”

So if whites represented 80 percent of Minnesotans and 82 percent of COVID deaths, as of the date of the study, how was COVID killing blacks and latinos at levels several times greater than whites?

….

As of June 3, the MDH dashboard shows that 6,188 whites have died from COVID, representing 0.139 percent of the white population. Among “Latinx,” the totals are 81 deaths, or 0.072 percent of that population. Among blacks, the numbers are 368 deaths or 0.100 percent of the black population. As for Asians, 288 have died with COVID listed on their death certificates, representing 0.101 percent of Minnesota’s Asian population. And finally, 101 Native Americans have died from or with COVID, or 0.169 percent of that population. 

In other words, MDH’s own records indicate that Native Americans and whites have disproportionately died from COVID, with blacks, Hispanics and Asians dying at lesser rates. In particular, whites, 80 percent of Minnesota’s population, are now over-represented with 88 percent of COVID deaths. 

There is no mystery as to why this is true. Minnesota’s white population skews older than most minority populations, and COVID is overwhelmingly a disease that is dangerous to the elderly, especially those who are already sick. This basic demographic fact explains why COVID has impacted white Minnesotans to a greater extent than minority groups whose populations are, on the average, younger. 

The data compiled by MDH obviously don’t support the “racism” narrative favored by the Walz administration, so the Department of Health has promoted “age adjusted” COVID death calculations. On an “age adjusted” basis, MDH claims that all of the minority groups have higher COVID death rates than whites, with blacks at a ratio of about two and one-half to one. 

….

Despite the obvious flaws in the methods used both by university sociologists and the state Department of Health, and despite the undeniable fact that Minnesota’s whites have died from COVID at a rate greater than their share of the population, the press has uncritically parroted these groups’ claims of racial disparity. 

….

Race is not a risk factor for COVID. Apart from random variation, the reason for modest differences in COVID mortality among various groups is that the actual risk factors for the disease — age, of course, but also obesity, diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and so on — are not uniformly distributed through the population. The Walz administration’s misguided obsession with race is one reason why it performed poorly at publicizing the real COVID risk factors and taking practical actions to protect the most vulnerable Minnesotans.

PSAKING BACK: True: 58% agree media are the “enemy of the people”, 83% hit fake news.

And I'll sell you George Washington's campsite

Sizzle, if not steak, in Havemeyer

Sizzle, if not steak, in Havemeyer

Mark Twain’s final home lists for $4.2M in Conn

A Tuscan villa-style spread in the Fairfield County town of Redding, which Twain — born Samuel Clemens — built and resided in until his death in 1910, has listed for $4.2 million, the listing brokerage told The Post. 

Named “Stormfield,” the 6,300-square-foot property is aptly located at 30 Mark Twain Lane, and sits on 28.53 acres adjoining a 161-acre land trust.

The mansion gets its Tuscan look thanks to Twain’s extensive travels in Italy.

There’s just — ahem — one small problem with this description, one small detail:

Twain’s original home burned down in 1923, years after his death. But builders constructed a new property on the grounds in 1925 — retaining the home’s terraces, stone walls, stone pillars and gardens.

I can’t immediately lay my hands on the citation, but Washington’s army is said to have broken its march from Boston to New York by camping in the fields at the top of Palmer Hill, in what is now Havemeyer Park. Buy a house there, set up a replica pup tent, and presto! Instant history. Call me.

If you’re interested in visiting, but not buying an original Mark Twain house, I highly recommend a visit to his Hartford mansion. It’s fascinating.

the real thing, in hartford

the real thing, in hartford

And in homage to realtors, lawyers and politicians everywhere, this:

First slowly, then quickly

wot’s this then, guvnor? heat?

wot’s this then, guvnor? heat?

Britain has banned the sale of gas boilers after 2025 (2023, if Boris has his way), and will soon be ripping them out of existing homes by the millions. (One) problem: they won’t work for millions of homes. We’ll leave aside, for now, where the new electricity supply to power all these new heat pumps will come from, because it doesn’t exist, nor will it

But back to freezing in the dark:

These pumps are a greener solution as they aren't powered by fossil fuels and are highly efficient. However, they may not be suitable for millions of UK homes.

David Holmes of comparison site Boiler Guide said: 'Heat pumps come at a considerable cost, so it is important that homeowners do their research on suitability before forking out. 

'While the Government is rightly pushing for renewable heating solutions, a one size fits all approach is not going to work. There are many positives with heat pumps but they are not viable for every home in the UK.'Heat pumps operate at a lower temperature than gas boilers, so if your home is not well-insulated a heat pump is unlikely to provide the warmth and comfort you need.

It is thought that 25 million homes in the UK do not have adequate insulation, so if you have a draughty house, ripping out your gas boiler for a heat pump before investing in insulation is only going to make the situation worse.

In his History of the English-Speaking Peoples, Churchill observes that when Rome retreated from Britain, the technology to build and maintain the hypocausts that provided central heat and hot water also faded away, with the result that “not until 1898 would the wealthiest Victorian gentleman be able to enjoy central heat”. We’re heading back, fast.

There goes Britain

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40 percent of Brits want to wear masks permanently, others crave permanent lockdown

The Economist: Boris Johnson can often channel John Bull, a ruddy cartoon figure from Georgian England. He personified the liberty-loving English yeoman, in opposition to Napoleonic tyranny. Announcing England’s first pandemic lockdown in March 2020, Mr Johnson lamented “taking away the ancient, inalienable right of free-born people of the United Kingdom to go to the pub”. Government behavioural scientists warned that Britons would defy even modest restrictions, and fretted about disorder and looting.

Bull. For 16 months Britons have complied dutifully and, for the most part, uncomplainingly. But on July 19th Mr Johnson will scrap nearly all the remaining anti-covid measures in England. Nightclubs will reopen, capacity caps will be lifted on restaurants and masks will no longer be mandatory. The tabloids have dubbed it “Freedom Day”. Conservative mps are overjoyed; many Britons are not.

Polling by Ipsos mori for The Economist suggests two-thirds think masks, social distancing and travel restrictions should continue for another month (see chart). A majority would support them until covid-19 is controlled worldwide, which may take years. Even more strikingly, a sizeable minority would like personal freedoms to be restricted permanently. A quarter say nightclubs and casinos should never reopen; almost two in ten would support an indefinite ban on leaving home after 10pm “without good reason”.

… Yet Britain’s exceptionally high vaccination rate will limit the rise in hospital admissions and deaths. Vaccination has driven covid-19’s fatality rate down from 0.8% of estimated infections to below 0.1%, the same as for seasonal flu….

Public willingness to sacrifice for the common good in a time of crisis has surprised ministers. One insider says he has changed his mind on whether Britons would volunteer for war: “I’d always assumed that if my generation was shown the Kitchener poster, they’d say: ‘No chance, mate’.” But the pandemic has also revealed John Bull’s authoritarian streak.

Many Britons did not go out dancing or drinking, or take overseas holidays, even before the pandemic. Nightclubs, casinos and dark streets harbour all sorts of wrongdoers. For some, it seems, endless lockdown is an acceptable price for everyone else staying home.




The National Association of Realtors, Oregon, and free speech: one of these things does not belong with the others

don’t you be my neighbor!

don’t you be my neighbor!

NAR-sponsored law is enacted in Oregon that will prohibit potential home buyers from writing “love letters” to sellers.

House hunters in Oregon will no longer be able to submit a “love letter” to try to woo sellers to their offers, a new state law says. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown signed a bill into law that says seller’s agents must reject such communications from buyers to sellers that contain information outside of the traditional offer. Oregon is the first state to make such letters illegal in a real estate transaction.

The use of love letters by buyers has become a common tactic to help make a buyer’s offer stand out. Buyers will write to sellers about how much they love the home, how they can envision their family living there, or how they'll spend the holidays.

But the National Association of REALTORS® has been warning its members to be aware of the potential risks involving love letters.

“While this may seem harmless, these letters can actually pose fair housing risks because they often contain personal information and reveal characteristics of the buyer, such as race, religion, or familial status, which could then be used, knowingly or through unconscious bias, as an unlawful basis for a seller’s decision to accept or reject an offer,” NAR warned on its Fair Housing Corner blog last year.

The practice of using love letters has remained popular as buyers face fierce competition for housing and have been desperate to make their offer stand out. Bidding wars have grown common: The average sold home in May had five offers, according to the latest REALTORS® Confidence Index survey.

These letters may seem harmless on the surface: But “an example—when a letter comes in, if it describes the family situation or circumstances, whatever that may be, or indicates or gives a clue to a religious or any other protected class, there’s always the risk that a seller could be accused of making a decision based upon inappropriate factors,” Paul Knighton, CEO of More Realty, told KGW.com.

In Oregon, love letters will no longer be an issue, under the new state law.

To be clear, the law doesn’t forbid buyers from writing directly to an owner, it just prohibits real estate agents from having anything to do with them, and threatens home sellers if they read them, so the effect is the same.

I think these “love letters” are dumb, and I’ve never known one to work — cash beats sentiment every time, at least in this town, but I suppose it makes buyers who have no more money to throw at a house feel better. What troubles me most about this is that it’s another example of the NAR trying to suppress speech and channel it as it deems appropriate. form it approves of. Here’s an example of that, from last year, but continuing:

National Association of Realtors bans all offensive, insulting statements or comments, anywhere

Under the new policy, real estate agents who insult, threaten, or harass people based on race, sex, or other legally protected characteristics can be investigated, fined, or expelled. Its online training sessions offer a glimpse at how difficult the rules can be to enforce.

The sweeping prohibition applies to association members 24/7, covering all communication, private and professional, written and spoken, online and off. Punishment could top out at a maximum fine of $15,000 and expulsion from the organization.

The National Association of Realtors’ decision, allowing any member of the public to file a complaint, has alarmed other real estate agents, and also some legal and ethics experts, who say the hate-speech ban’s vagueness is an invitation to censor controversial political opinions, especially on race and gender. 

While that’s not the association’s stated intention, the skeptics say their fears are justified by the hyperactive “cancel culture” online that has jettisoned hapless workers for posting “all lives matter” and objecting to gay marriage.

“The dam has broken, and other organizations will look at this,” predicted Robert Foehl, a professor of business ethics and business law at Ohio University.

“If this is good for real estate agents, why not attorneys? Why not doctors?” Foehl said. “They’re going to be pressured to do what NAR has done. And that pressure is going to be very real, because what organization wants to argue they should allow ‘hate speech’ by their members?”

I’ve pretty much hit the end of the run for my illustrious real estate career, but I’m keeping up my license for at least a bit longer in the hope that the NAR will come after me — I’d like nothing more than a great, big First Amendment, anti-trust lawsuit to fill my retirement days.

Rage, rage against the dying of the light

Henry Blodget barred for life by the SEC

Henry Blodget barred for life by the SEC

Business Insider compiles list of former Trump administration members

A Business Insider list of former President Donald Trump’s officials tracks where these figures are working since departing the administration, warning that like Trump, these former staffers are “nowhere close to being gone.”

Insider said it combed through the interviews, LinkedIn profiles, and public records of over 327 former Trump staffers and compiled a searchable database “to show where they all landed.”  (RELATED: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Suggests ‘Trump Sycophants’ Should Be Held Accountable ‘In The Future’)

The publication noted that almost 100 former staffers have obtained “establishment” jobs, that over 40 of these former Trump officials still work in the government or in politics, and that at least 85 have gone “off the grid with no information available about their next move.”

“Donald Trump has been deplatformed and defenestrated, but he’s nowhere close to being gone,” Insider wrote. “The same goes for the people who made up his administration.” (RELATED: ‘We Have A List’: Pundits And Democrats Plan To Hold Trump Supporters Accountable)

Within hours of the publication tweeting the story, Twitter users had already begun threatening or encouraging targeted harassment of the former Trump officials.

The professor nails it, 2X in a row

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INSTAPUNDIT

SORRY, BUT I DON’T SEE 5 VOTES AT THE SUPREME COURT TO OVERTURN ROE.  Roe & Casey at the Supreme court: How Prolifers and Republican Politicians Should Prepare.

The thing to remember is that abortion is valued by the gentry class because it allows daughters to put off marriage and pursue an education that ensures continued gentry-class status. This includes much, probably most, of the Republican gentry. And the Supreme Court is a 100% gentry class institution by design.

260Posted at 7:00 pm by Glenn Reynolds

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WHEN PEOPLE ON CRACK HAVE SMOKED THEIR LAST ROCK, THEY START LOOKING FOR IMAGINARY BITS THEY MAY HAVE DROPPED. In the old days they called that “ghostbusting.” That’s what pandemic-addicts are doing with the variants now. Don’t buy the hysteria: The Delta variant is actually less dangerous.

250Posted at 6:06 pm by Glenn Reynolds

Bizarro World

creature from the black lagoon.png

A reader brought to my attention this land sale on 42 Richmond Hill, which I’d missed: five-acre lot, asked $2.2 million, closed yesterday for $2.7 million. WTF?

Back in the 80s and early 90s my practice included the representation of a handful of local contractors and, after some years of success, they always came up with the brilliant idea of going all-in on some huge spec project that was going to make them rich. I’d plead with them not to over-extend themselves because, I’d tell them, I hated to lose them as clients and I didn’t do bankruptcy law. They always did it anyway, to their ruin.

That certainly may not be the case with this buyer; I don’t even know who he is, let alone his financial situation, but Richmond Hill has been the graveyard of large spec homes for at least the past twenty years. A $7-$9 million house might sell these days, who knows? This time is different, after all, but had he asked me, and I’m sure he’s glad he didn’t (not as happy as the fortunate seller, though), I’d have advised him to look elsewhere to lose his money.

Perhaps he was just looking for an easier, faster way to accomplish that.