A reader just sent me this:
FYI - Projected vs. actual - the 2017-2018 elementary school enrollment is down in every school. New Leb is down 39% in K.
1. GPS K Total: 536 Actual vs. 669 Projected (-133 students, -20%).
2. GPS K-5 Total: 4032 Actual vs. 4159 Projected (-127 students, -3%).
3. NL K: 22 Actual vs. 36 Projected (-14 students, -39%).
4. NL K-5: 244 Actual vs. 263 Projected (-19 students, -7%).
5. NM K: 58 Actual vs. 83 Projected (-25 students, -30%).
6. RV K: 57 Actual vs. 76 Projected (-19 students, -25%).
7. PK K: 24 Actual vs. 38 Projected (-14 students, -37%).
I can't speak to the New Lebanon district, because I don't expend all that much attention to it (hey, if you're going to engage in what's a fairly dull occupation, why not follow the Willy Sutton business philosophy and go where the money is?), but I do know that we've seen a pretty good volume of sales and contracts in most parts of town. If those sales are from empty nesters to young families, and I suspect many are, the projections may be overly-pessimistic. Let's see what actual registrations are in August, when the new families have settled in, and are reporting their intentions as to where they'll be enrolling their children.
Though perhaps the BOE has already factored in that unknown and based its projections accordingly, in which case, I smell redistricting and even school closings. .
Anyone who knows the answer to that is invited — asked, in fact — to weigh in.