For Connecticut’s pensions, investment forecasting is the triumph of hope over experience.
The state’s $17 billion teachers pension returned an average of 3.2 percentage point less than its 8.5 percent assumed annual rate of return between fiscal 2001 and 2015, the sixth-widest gap among 112 state retirement funds over the period, according to data compiled by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. The difference between assumed and actual returns of Connecticut’s municipal employee and state workers pensions wasn’t much better, ranking eighth and 15th-widest, respectively.
The failure to meet such targets is significant because governments need to boost contributions to make up the difference. Doing so would worsen the financial squeeze on Connecticut, which was downgraded by all three major credit-rating companies this year because of its budget deficit.
“Eight-point-five is delusional".