Cognitive dissonance in North Mamdaniland
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The Unicorn voters ushered in draconian rent control regulations in 2018, and already the effects are being felt as the existing available housing stock shrinks. Then they turned their destructive attention to new housing, with exactly the results you, but not they, would expect.
Portland Maine Housing Projects Stall as Costs Collide with ‘Inclusive’ Zoning Mandate
Despite dozens of approved projects and strong demand for new housing, several major developments in Portland are stalled as rising construction and financing costs collide with the city’s inclusionary zoning ordinance, developers and city officials said during a November 6 panel hosted by the Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce.
The ordinance, approved by voter referendum in 2020, requires housing projects with 10 units or more to set aside 25 percent of units for lower- to middle-income households or pay an in-lieu fee of $182,830 per unit. Combined with higher construction prices and interest rates, panelists said the mandate has made some projects financially unworkable.
Jonathan Culley, principal of Redfern Properties, said his company has roughly 800 units currently on hold, including a 327-unit project on Washington Avenue and a 500-plus unit development planned for Kennebec Street. Redfern, which has built nearly a thousand apartments and condominiums in Portland since 2013, completed its most recent project, the 263-unit Casco building, in 2024.
Culley said neither of the newer projects will move forward under current conditions.
“It would cost us $15 million to the city right off the bat,” he said of the Washington Avenue development.
City planning director Kevin Kraft said Portland has approved more than 45 housing projects since 2020, including approvals for about 1,300 units this year. He pointed to recent zoning reforms under the city’s ReCode effort that allow greater density, height and flexibility for multifamily housing and accessory dwelling units.
“So ReCode has unlocked a lot of potential,” Kraft said, referring to the ordinance at the center of the debate.
Still, Culley predicted few new projects will break ground in 2026 or 2027 unless the inclusionary zoning ordinance is changed. The soonest the ordinance can be reviewed is early 2026, under terms of the referendum. Kraft said a state grant will support a data-focused review of the rule.
Panelists also cited ballooning financing costs as a significant barrier. Culley noted that when his firm closed on the Casco project, it secured a 12-year loan at 3.5 percent interest. Today, similar financing would be at more than 6 percent.
“That’s over a million dollars a year just in interest rate costs,” he said, adding that it would require a rent increase of roughly $350 per unit per month.
Other challenges include regulatory costs, building code requirements and rising pressure from neighborhood groups opposed to large developments.
Todd Morse, president of the Urbanist Coalition of Portland, said changes to building codes, including allowing more single-stair designs and increased use of mass timber, could help reduce expenses.
Culley, who serves on the city’s Social Housing Task Force, said Portland will continue to see strong housing demand driven by factors such as climate migration* and growth associated with the Roux Institute. He characterized the shortage of affordable and available housing as both an economic and humanitarian issue.
“We have people sleeping outside,” he said. “And it’s affecting our downtown business community. We’re actually hurting the people we’re trying to help.”
*”Climate Migration”? New to me, too, but you’ll be heartened to know that NGO’s and governments have identified the phenomenon and already pocketing money to address it. Who would have expected a flood of Floridian refugees swamping Portlandia? Our wise leaders, that’s who — hold on to your wallet.
AI Overview
Climate migration is the movement of people, both internal and international, who are forced or choose to relocate due to the impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise, extreme weather, and drought. This movement can be temporary or permanent, planned or spontaneous, and it often involves people moving from rural to urban areas, though it also includes cross-border movement. Climate migration is already happening and is projected to increase, though it is complex and influenced by factors beyond environmental stressors, including economic and social conditions.
Causes and drivers
Climate impacts: Climate change leads to a range of environmental changes that force migration, including rising sea levels, more frequent and intense storms, flooding, and worsening droughts.
Economic hardship: These climate events destroy livelihoods, particularly for those in agriculture-dependent regions, making it difficult for people to earn a living in their home communities.
Poverty: Poorer populations are often more vulnerable to climate impacts, as they may live in more hazardous areas and have fewer resources to adapt, making them more likely to move due to climate stressors.
Social networks: Existing social connections and family ties can also influence migration patterns, as people may move to join family or friends in other locations.
Types of climate migration
Displacement: People are forced to leave their homes suddenly due to a specific disaster, like a flood or hurricane, and may be unable to return.
Migration: People move in anticipation of or in response to slower-onset changes like sea-level rise or desertification.
Planned relocation: Governments or other authorities can assist communities in moving from areas that are no longer habitable to new, safer locations.
Challenges and implications
Vulnerability: Climate migrants often face significant challenges, including the loss of skills and assets, a higher risk of exploitation, and lack of access to essential services in their new locations.
Inequity: The impacts of climate change and the ability to move are not evenly distributed. The poorest populations and certain groups, such as women, are often disproportionately affected.
Legal and social status: The term "climate refugee" is not legally recognized under international law, which can complicate matters for those seeking protection and assistance across borders.
"Trapped" populations: Climate change can also prevent migration for some, as it erodes the assets needed to move, leaving them with no choice but to stay in increasingly dangerous conditions.