Antidote to media hype

EOS has kept her hurricane post at the top of her blog,  and while there are many interesting comments there, many from former Greenwich residents, the most informative are coming from earth scientist Mike Finkbeiner, currently in Clearwater, FL (his Greenwich surveying company's website is here) who actually understands all the data being sent from NOAA—that's in contradistinction from the media's hysterical reporting. Hit the comments and scroll to the bottom to get Mike's most recent reports. For instance, at 9:49 this morning, while national TV was wailing over the deadly 15' storm surge crushing the Keys, it turns out that the eye passed over the Keys at low tide, thereby raising the water height to all of one foot over normal high tide.

Which is not to say that conditions won't get much, much worse as the storm moves north, but I intend to rely on Mike to keep me informed of what's happening, rather than, say, Al Roker.

1. EARTHIMAGE

   September 10, 2017 at 9:49 am

   The eye wall passes west of Vaca Key, about 50 miles east of Key West.
   The passage lines up with low tide, so the maximum water height is only a foot or so higher than normal high tide.
   Sustained winds at 45 knots, gusting to 67.
   Did I mention it will not be reported this way.
   Data below is from the NOAA tide station, the only point at which surge measurement is possible according to NOAA.

UPDATE FROM MIKE:

EARTHIMAGE

September 10, 2017 at 2:51 pm

I am not one to pull out the FAKE NEWS label quickly, but this is really getting to be an embarrassment.

Mike Bettis in Naples [current wind speeds 7-29 mph] calling Irmageddon.

Outside my window: happy groups walking dogs, doing the normal Sunday afternoon stuff. Skies bright, rains at drizzle level, winds nil.

Danger, Will Robinson!

Latest forecast for Hurricane Jose's track shows NYC as a possible landfall within 10 days.

You probably don't need to buy that bottled water quite yet, however.

"The world's only storm surge blog"

That's what this author claims, and he may very well be right.

What little I know abut storm surge comes from Mike Finkbeiner, and he'd be the first to tell you, as he has me, that I'm a slow learner. Still, this guy's discussions seem in accord with Mike's. If you have friends or property interests down in the Keys or West Florida, it may be worth your time checking it out.

The most dangerous thing about Irma is that, if she doesn't deliver, no one will evacuate again

this had better not be the day after

I am not expressing a wish that Irma will slam into Florida and destroy the state, but if damage is mild, if Miami is spared and Tampa isn't inundated, the chances of ever convincing 6 million residents to flee from a storm will revert to just about nil, and one day, that will cost a lot of lives.

Everyone from the Governor, to NOAA to, of course, the press, has proclaimed Irma the ultimate death storm, and certainly I'd have pulled up stakes and vamoosed some days ago if I'd been in, say, the Keys, but if millions of residents spend thousands of dollars apiece and days away from home and business, for naught, how will anyone ever convince them to do it again?

There will certainly, one day, come a storm of such a size and power that it will obliterate everything that's been built on barrier islands like Miami or North Carolina's Outer Banks: for credibility's sake, this had better be that storm.

UPDATE: Over at EOS's site, our friend Mike Finkbeiner (aka "Earthimage" has some great observations and specific knowledge about this hurricane; specific knowledge, unlike the ignorant hysteria being peddled by the press. Look for them in the comments section.

Mike's Greenwich firm, by the way, is the go-to place for surveys, elevation certificates and all that sort of land use stuff. Good people.

You heard it here first, but you heard it here (at least) two years ago

The Chump admires the new new lebanon school and its unicorn stables

Malloy: "I have no intention of funding the New Lebanon School"

In fact, I think its been over 3 years. Regardless, Hartford has now made clear what we knew all along: It's busing or nothing. I've always maintained that we should chose nothing.

GREENWICH — Gov. Dannel P. Malloy and his administration have expressed new doubts about whether a new and larger New Lebanon School can address Greenwich Public Schools’ racial balance problem, and said the project is not worth state investment.

In an interview with the Hearst Connecticut Media editorial board this week, state Office of Policy and Management Secretary Benjamin Barnes said, “One hundred percent state-funded schools in affluent districts don’t make any sense under almost any context. And the notion that we would allow someone to build a new school rather than make the hard choices about redistricting in order to achieve some appropriate level of diversity within the schools in their district is highly problematic.”

Malloy said he was “very sensitive” to the issue of schools avoiding redistricting.

“I don’t know whether they can compel me to fund (New Lebanon School) but I have no intention of funding it,” Malloy said. “Communities have gotten away with things they shouldn’t have been allowed to get away with. I think every community needs to look at itself in the mirror and you know, address this.”

Barnes at the Thursday editorial board meeting described the Malloy administration as “steadfastly” against the New Lebanon project.

The town is expecting a significant portion of the new school project to be funded by the state, but this is not the first time the governor or high-ranking administration officials have spoken against it, dating back to December, when Barnes released a memo to key legislators that called funding the construction “not good public policy.”

Is Tesei next?

Councilman CHAMBERLAIN visits greenwich

New Milford councilman forced to resign after being outed as a Furry

A Connecticut councilman is resigning after his profile on a website catering to “furries” appeared on social media — but the outgoing first-term Democrat insists his animal costume fetish has “nothing to do with sex.”

New Milford Councilman Scott Chamberlain, who was up for re-election, is stepping down after a town resident posted several screenshots on Facebook of the lawmaker’s profile on a private website for “furries,” a subculture of people who don animal costumes, sometimes for sexual gratification.

“In response to information about ‘likes’ on a personal page by Councilman Chamberlain, I have called for his immediate resignation from the Town Council and any other appointed Boards and Commissions,” Mayor David Gronbach said in an email to The Post. “As public servants, we are held to a higher standard and Mr. Chamberlain’s apparent posts do not meet that standard.”

Ah, Fall, when a builder's fancy lightly turns to impossible profits

9 Shaw Place, new construction, is asking $5.250 million. The listing description, obviously designed to appeal to out-of-town Internet browsers, describes it as "located in an estate section of Riverside", which is laugh-out-loud funny. Cobra, do you remember your house, or my family's, or any house on Gilliam Lane resembling an estate? Neither do I. As for "Shaw Place" being a " private lane off Gilliam Lane" I'd describe it as a shared driveway, no?

It claims 7,000 square feet, one-third of which is buried underground, and, of course, a "gourmet kitchen": Judging from Greenwich real estate listings, there hasn't been anything but a gourmet kitchen built in town since, I'd guess, 1975, so I'm not sure how this is a distinguishing feature.

No interior shots yet, so presumably the house remains unfinished, but I'm sure it will be an entirely pleasant home when completed; I'm less sure of this price.

Mid Country price cut

No sale, despite the zebra. I warned BARBieri to add the orange, but would he listen?

14 mountain Wood Drive, from $4.495 million to $3.748 today. Owners paid $3.850 for the place in 2003, put on an addition and a pool and renovated it nine years ago, all for naught (although presumably they enjoyed those improvements, and that's really the point of such things).

Riverside contract

26 Marks Road, last asking price $2.995 million. Its builder priced it at $3.999 in 2011 and finally sold it to these owners for $3 million in 2013. They, in turn, originally tried for $3.349 this past June, and we'll have to wait until it closes to find out what they're finally getting for it.

Nice house, built by one of Kaali-Nagy's kids, but quite small. I always find it odd when listings for expensive homes exclude petty items, as this one has: a basement TV. If there' anything that depreciates and grows obsolete faster than a flat screen TV or a head of lettuce, I'm not aware of it, and it just seems silly to insist on keeping it.

Jennifer Lawrence: AIDS is God's punishment of homosexuals

God's Messenger (left)

Well she didn't say that exactly, but the high-school graduate who, I discovered when I just looked her up to find out who she is, was named by Time Magazine as one of the "Most Influential People in the World", claims that the Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are punishment by "the wrath of Mother Nature" for the country permitting Donald Trump to be elected president. This not only seems a bit harsh of the New Agers' version of God, but also over broad: after all, the majority of voters, both nationally and in Houston, and in Miami, voted for Miss Lawrence's preferred candidate (she trounced him in Miami) and I don't believe the citizens of St. Martin's, Antigua and Barbuda had much of a say in the matter at all. 

Still, who would argue with a high school graduate who's one of the most influential people in the world? If she says there's an all powerful force in the universe who punishes all of mankind for the sins of the few (and He/She/It certainly did so when Noah was just a wee lad), then, as her fellow preachers say about the wrath of God smiting the wicked, "Gaia said it, I believe it, that settles it".