And we have shut down a country of 330 million because ...?

Don’t worry, we’re destroying the economy and ruining millions of lives, just to show we care

Nursing home infection and death rates have skewed COVID numbers

Of the 39 states (and Washington D.C.) that are reporting nursing home deaths, 19 states attribute more than half of their coronavirus deaths to the nursing home population.

But, what does that mean? A little context is necessary. How much of our population is made up of nursing home residents? “There are about 1.4 to 1.5 million people living in nursing homes,” according to Dr. Tanya Gure, section chief of geriatrics and associate professor in internal medicine at the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center. If we go with the high estimate, that means that nursing home residents account for .46 percent of the population of the United States, yet nursing home residents account for approximately 43.4 percent of coronavirus deaths (or 51.6 percent if you double New York’s count to compensate for the exclusion of nursing home resident hospital deaths, per Kerpen’s suggestion). That’s a staggering statistic.

So, what does this tell us? For starters, it tells us that states need to do a better job protecting the most vulnerable populations. Professor Mark Woolhouse, an expert in infectious diseases in Scotland, led a study that determined current lockdown restrictions could be easily lifted as long the most vulnerable populations are left protected. According to Woolhouse, for the non-vulnerable population, the coronavirus is comparable to a “nasty flu.”

“If it wasn’t for the fact that it presents such a high risk of severe disease in vulnerable groups, we would never have taken the steps we have and closed down the country. If we can shield the vulnerable really well, there is no reason why we cannot lift many of the restrictions in place for others.”

And from Minnesota, which permits its citizens to row a boat but not to use a motor or buy vegetable seeds or seedlings:

Twenty-six new deaths have been attributed to the virus; the new total is 534. Twenty-five of the 26 new deaths occurred among residents of long-term care facilities; the new total of LTC deaths is 434. They now account for slightly in excess of 81 percent of all deaths attributed to the virus. Of the 26 new decedents, 10 were in their 90’s, 9 in their 80’s, five in their 70’s, and two in their 60’s. The median age of all decedents remains 83.

Why the statewide lockdown?

A few of the meatpacking plants in rural Minnesota have experienced outbreaks of the virus. The biggest may be a pork processing plant in Worthington with 2700 employees. Kevin Roche — he of Healthy Skeptic — wrote me last night to note that an email from a plant employee circulating on Twitter reports all employees have been tested. Results: 1200 tested positive, 90 percent were asymptomatic, 12 were hospitalized, no deaths. Although the situation in Worthington has been a frequent subject of discussion at the daily briefings, for some reason the authorities have not seen fit to announce the good news.

Here in Maine, cumulative COVID stats through yesterday RE:

1,408 cases, 249 of which (18%) have been nursing homes.

198 hospitalized (no breakdown provided)

64 deaths, 30 in nursing homes

And, related, reader Lian Bruce has compiled relevant numbers comparing Connecticut and Maine:

Summer rentals

I’ve pretty much stopped writing about these — I reported on the phenomenon, what’s left to say? But like every other real estate agent in town, i’m getting a lot of inquiries from NYC folk looking for good homes to rent while New York is shut down, so the topic’s still relevant. Though not for long, because there’s just about no inventory left. If you have a nice house, with pool, and you’re tempted to head out of Greenwich this summer, call a realtor – you’ll have it rented in days.

Case in Point, 10 Frost Road. In past summers, the owners have rented it out for $23,000 per month for July and August. This year they bumped it up to $30,000, made it available for three months, June-Aug, had it rented in three days.

Oh, Canada. Another socialist dream shattered

We’ll just have to drink moose piss, Nellie

Canadian health system is sick, feeble and being buried by COVID

Canada's Surge in Cases

Canada is experiencing a surge in serious COVID-19 cases, with eight new deaths per million April 8 compared to nine deaths per million in the much-larger US Total deaths in Canada were up to 435 per day.

Canadian society essentially is on lockdown, with schools and public events closed, police fining house parties, and provinces, including Quebec, closing all nonessential businesses.

Like the US, Canada began to see widespread shortages in health-related supplies, from masks and personal protective equipment to testing reagents and vaccine manufacturing capacity.

Also like the US, the overarching concern in Canada has been “bending the curve” of infections, using compulsory social distancing mandates that raise constitutional questions.

Finally, like the US and contrary to the Los Angeles Times, Canada’s federal government has committed to billions for cash-strapped health agencies and hospitals across the country, with intense pressure for more.

Indeed, that spending sparked a bitter showdown in Parliament as the opposition balked at the government’s request to spend “all money required to do anything.”

Health Care Shortages

What gives Canada such urgency to keep the infection curve down is that, going on decades now, the single dominating feature of Canadian health care is shortages.

As early as March 20, Reuters news service quoted the chief of staff of one of Ontario’s newest hospitals as saying, “You’ve got people in broom closets and auditoriums and conference rooms across the country.”

Even in normal times, the average wait in Canada from referral to treatment by a specialist is 20 weeks, compared to less than four weeks in the US Long before COVID-19, an estimated 1 million Canadians languishedon waiting lists, waiting in pain or flying abroad for faster treatment.

Canadians long have faced shortages and lengthy waits for MRIs and ultrasounds while being forced to use outdated and cheaper drugs. Canadian emergency rooms have been packed for years, with four-hour waits running three times the US level and four-hour waits standard in Quebec province.

This is all in normal times, before COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

These shortages mean there is very little spare capacity in Canada to handle any surge in emergency treatment. The concern is most acute for beds in intensive care units, the kind needed to treat critical COVID-19 cases.

Per capita, Canada has one-third as many ICU beds as the US and about the same number as ravaged Italy. In some provinces, including Alberta and British Columbia, ICU beds number fewer per capita than Iran.

A Monopoly Public Sector Healthcare System

Unfortunately, at this point, there is little Canada can do. The private health care sector for critical care is atrophied, largely banned by a monopoly public sector that long has cut corners to save money.

Thousands of retired doctors and nurses have volunteered heroically to return to work, but there essentially is no private sector to ramp up capacity quickly. Canadians are left to hope for the best as the slow machinery of the public health system grinds on.

Too little too late, Canada is doing what it can to bring in the private sector. Emergency deregulations are spreading across health care, from scope of practice to product licensing, while private operators finally are getting limited permission to operate in telemedicine.

But 50 years of government management of essential health care has left Canada with far less capacity and far fewer resources than it needs in this crisis.

But it was a gated, private beach, and that's different

But we have a different class of people here; they don’t get common folk diseases

California Congressman Harley Rouda, Democrat who denounced opening beaches as “reckless” caught on private beach. My guess is that if Congress ever reopens (don’t rush on my account) he’ll fly back on a private jet.

Mr. Rouda apparently lives in Emerald Bay - The website California Beaches, calls Emerald Bay Beach "one of the nicest beaches in Laguna Beach."

Emerald Bay Beach is a private beach that is only open to residents of the gated community of Emerald Bay in North Laguna Beach. The homes on both sides of Pacific Coast Highway have access to this half-mile-wide sandy beach. There is a park centrally located in the cove with grass areas, a tennis court, a wide flat sandy area with volleyball courts, and picnic tables and fire pits. If you get an invitation to visit Emerald Bay Beach from a resident, consider yourself lucky. This is one of the nicest beaches in Laguna Beach, California.

Current real estate listings at the "premier gated community" range between $4 million and $12 million, and are said to feature "some of the most exclusive real estate in all of Southern California."

See what happens when the cages are opened?

There’s a new meme circulating in our media: fights between shoppers are the fault of governors who have ended their states’ lockdowns. Many examples, here’s just one:

Brawl breaks out at mall’s food court

A brawl broke out at an Atlanta mall on the day it reopened after the state’s lockdown — with the melee captured on camera.

The video has garnered more than 7 million views and some questioning whether Georgia ended its coronavirus lockdown too soon.

The 17-second clip begins with three women and a security guard scuffling in the parking lot of the Cumberland Mall.

“Get off, or I’ll have to pepper spray both of you,” the guard said as he struggled to separate the women.

Eventually, a man comes flying into the frame, dropkicking one of the women before shoving the security guard and fleeing with another woman involved in the fight.

How could this happen? The answer’s obvious.

Gov. Brian Kemp began lifting coronavirus restrictions and restarting the economy on Friday, April 24, becoming one of the first states to do so — a move that even President Trump considered “too soon.”

These mall fights, even riots, have been going on for years, probably because the shoppers were worried about being locked down in 2020.

Here’s one at a Victoria Secret’s store, 2016:

And here’s a St. Valentine’s Day Massacre back in 2011. I blame global warming.

And in upstate New York, Christmas Eve 2014, doubtless from fear that Donald Trump would announce his candidacy for president the following year:

Well okay, then, I guess California's lockup program isn't as bad as I'd thought

Y’all have just a sparkling day!

San Francisco delivers free weed, booze and oxies to the quarantined homeless

They’ll never get them out of there

What the hell are we letting happen to our country?

California begins forcibly quarantining — separating families — to enforce shutdown.

On Wednesday, the soft voice of Ventura County Health Director Robert Levin confirmed that the forcible quarantines are underway. He announced a “pilot program that will grow into a larger program” and “we will find everyone with COVID-19 and we will isolate every one of them and we will make sure that they stay quarantined and we will check in with them every day. In other words, what this program means is we’re going to do a more complete job, we’re going to do a more meticulous job of making it less and less possible for others in the county to run into someone with COVID-19 infection.”

“[As] we get more contacts, “some of the people are going to have trouble with being isolated, for instance, if they live in a home where there’s only one bathroom, and there are three or four other people living there and those people don’t have COVID infection we’re not going to be able to keep the person in that home. Every person whom we’re isolating, for instance, needs to have, uh, their own bathroom. And so we’ll be moving people like this into other kinds of housing that we have available. They’ll also have other needs perhaps – food, whatever it’s going to be – the county will be there to back them up and to support them.”

As Mr. Levin acknowledges, Ventura County is just the beginning of Governor Newsom’s plan to expand forcible quarantines on the entire state. I read an article by some “public health specialist” yesterday advocating exactly this sort of procedure for the entire country as “the only way to defeat COVID-19”, and I thought, well. that’ll never happen. Not only will it, it’s begun.

Texas Sweat team shuts down bar for violating lockdown.

Glenn Reynolds:

So, let’s unpack this a bit. First, sheriffs shouldn’t have armored vehicles. Second, sheriffs who have armored vehicles shouldn’t use them to shut down salons for violating a quarantine order. Third, law enforcement officers shouldn’t be grossly obese. Fourth, law enforcement officers who are grossly obese shouldn’t be mincing around like tactical hippos.

Finally: So many libertarians are unhappy with the way things are going, when they should be delighted at how they’re making the powers that be look ridiculous. For all the BS TV shows like NCIS, this is much closer to the true face of law enforcement in America. Rub their noses, and protruding bellies, in it.

UPDATE: According to a comment, this picture, despite the caption, comes from the shutdown of a bar, not a hair salon, and that appears to be correct. My comments above, as adjusted, remain the same. Plus, the sheriff’s response to people protesting his action kind of misses the point:

“I’m getting calls from all over the country threatening to shoot me, I mean it’s just been crazy,” Griffis said told NewsWest9 Wednesday. “All these people that are here from wherever you came from, just go home and get yourself a job.”

I think the jobs are kind of the problem here, Sheriff.

Texas Supreme Court orders salon owner released from prison. This after local judge Eric Moye fined her $7,000 and jailed her for refusing to admit that opening her salon in defiance of his self-proclaimed shutdown order was “selfish”

Moye told owner Shelley Luther that although her decision was “selfish,” she could avoid jail time if she apologized and admitted wrongdoing.

Moye said Luther’s statement should make clear “that you now see the error of your ways, and understand that the society cannot function where one’s own belief in a concept of ‘liberty’ permits you to flaunt your disdain for the rulings of duly elected officials.”

Luther told him to pound sand:

“Judge, I would like to say that I have much respect for this court and laws,” Luther said in response. “I have to disagree with you, sir, when you say that I’m ‘selfish,’ because feeding my kids is not selfish. I have hair stylists that are going hungry because they’d rather feed their kids. So, sir, if you think the law is more important than kids getting fed, then please go ahead with your decision, but I am not going to shut the salon.”

The longer this goes on, the ugly will grow uglier.

UPDATE: Well, there are still some signs of beauty. A Go Fund me site was opened for Shelly Luther and has now shut down, mission more than accomplished, after raising $500,110.00. Cool.

Rogues Hill contract

16 Round Hill Road, asking $3.895 million, has a contract after just six days. Sold “as is”, this 1958 house sits on good land just a bit in from Lake Avenue, so I don’t know whether the new owner plans to build new or just shelter in place while Covid has its way with NYC. The sellers paid $4.3 for it in 2011, but these days, a number so close to that is pretty much a home run.

Here's encouraging news

74 Park Avenue South, Old Greenwich, asking$4.395 million has a contract after just 54 days.

The market for big-ticket homes has been pretty still these past two months, ordinarily the height of the spring market, so it’s good to see there’s at least some demand out there.

A price cut, and a sale after series of price cuts

99 Porchuck Rd

99 Porchuck Road has been reduced to $1.595. The builder, who is a good guy and has built some excellent houses, paid $762,500 for this property, scraped the house that was on it and replaced it with this simple one, which he priced at $2.095 a year ago. It’s a decent enough house, but the lot and road are inferior; he’d probably have been better advised to stick to old Greenwich and Riverside, where’s he’s enjoyed success.

64 Old Church

And 64 Old Church Road has sold for $3 million, after also starting a year ago, at $3.995. Purchased new in 2008 for $3.750, I believe this may have been a relo-sale.