Trump energy secretary calls current path 'unstable and dangerous' as AI data centers increase electricity demand
DOE's report found that with about 104 gigawatts of energy-generating capacity scheduled to be retired by 2030, power outages could see a significant rise if that capacity isn't replaced in a timely manner. It is estimated that annual outage hours could rise from single digits today to over 800 hours per year.
That’s 800 hours for individual homes and businesses, and here’ the kicker: all the planned propeller beanies and solar farms won’t add to the country’s baseload generating capacity.
The agency noted that while 104 GW of power generation is scheduled to be retired, it is scheduled to be replaced by 209 GW of new capacity by 2030 — though only 22 GW of that comes from firm baseload generation sources. It added that even with the assumption of no retirements, the risk of outages in some areas rises more than 3-fold.
What’s baseload, you ask?
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Baseload power generation refers to the continuous, reliable supply of electricity needed to meet the minimum power demand of an electrical grid, typically operating 24/7. It's the foundation upon which the rest of the grid's power needs are built.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
What is Baseload Power?
Constant Demand:
Baseload power represents the minimum amount of electricity required to keep the lights on and essential services running, even during off-peak hours.
24/7 Operation:
Baseload power plants are designed to operate continuously, providing a steady and reliable supply of electricity.
Minimum Load:
Baseload is the lowest level of electricity demand on a grid over a given period (e.g., a week).
Examples of Baseload Power Plants:
Nuclear Power Plants:
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These plants are well-suited for baseload generation due to their ability to produce large amounts of electricity at a consistent rate.
Coal-fired Power Plants:
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Historically, coal plants have been a major source of baseload power, though their role is evolving due to environmental concerns.
Geothermal Power Plants:
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These plants harness the Earth's internal heat to generate electricity and can operate continuously.
Hydropower Plants:
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Dams that generate electricity can also provide baseload power, especially those with large reservoirs.
Efficient Natural Gas Plants:
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Some natural gas plants are designed for baseload operation, particularly those with combined cycle technology.
Why is Baseload Important?
Reliability:
Baseload power ensures that the lights stay on and essential services are maintained, even when other power sources fluctuate.
Cost Efficiency:
Baseload plants, especially those using fossil fuels or nuclear energy, often offer lower per-kilowatt-hour costs due to their ability to run at high capacity.
Grid Stability:
Baseload power plants contribute to the overall stability of the electrical grid by providing a predictable and consistent power supply.
Baseload vs. Other Power Sources:
Intermediate and Peaking Power Plants:
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These plants are used to meet fluctuating electricity demands above the baseload level.
Renewable Energy Sources:
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While renewable sources like solar and wind are becoming increasingly important, they are often intermittent and not suitable for baseload generation due to their reliance on weather conditions.
Future of Baseload:
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The future of baseload power is evolving, with a growing focus on integrating more renewable energy sources and exploring technologies like energy storage to manage fluctuations in supply and demand.
So, okay, 800 hours — that’s less than 5-weeks a year, and surely those outages will be spread throughout the year, and besides, everyone can just buy generators, so factories can continue operating, and people even in glass houses can still enjoy heat and air conditioning, right? Not in California, buddy, and if the Greens have their way, in no other state either.
California has already severely limited the sale of new generators and will ban them entoirely in 2028 (as wellas small gasoline engines powering anything else are next: no boats, lawnmowers, no leaf-blowers — of, we’re already there in Greenwich on this one — no snowblowers in the mountains, etc.)
California is phasing out the sale of new gasoline-powered portable generators, with a complete ban on sales of newly manufactured ones starting in 2028. This is part of a broader effort to reduce emissions from small off-road engines, including those used in lawn equipment. While the sale of new gas generators will be prohibited, the use of existing gas generators will not be banned.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
2028 Ban:
Starting in 2028, all newly manufactured portable generators sold in California must meet zero-emission standards. This means no more gas-powered generators will be sold new in the state.
CARB Regulations:
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) is leading the initiative, with regulations targeting emissions from Small Off-Road Engines (SOREs).
Focus on Sales, Not Use:
The ban primarily focuses on the sale of new gas generators. It doesn't prohibit the use of existing gas generators.
Phased Implementation:
The regulations are being rolled out in phases, with stricter emissions standards for newly manufactured SOREs starting in 2024, aiming for a 40-90% reduction in emissions.
Impact on RVs:
The regulations also affect RVs, requiring a phase-out of RV models sold in California with built-in gas generators by 2028.
Alternative Power Sources:
Californians will need to rely on electric generators, battery systems, or other alternative power sources for backup power and other applications.