Swedish Left Wins Tiny Majority, on Backs of Muslim Voters

It was bound to happen in a country where 27 percent of the population is foreign-born or second-generation immigrants. The ruling conservative coalition lost its majority by a razor-thin margin, and that razor-thin margin was provided by non-native voters, who constitute about 13 to 14 percent of the electorate.
The left-wing bloc is projected to win 176 seats in Parliament, while the right-leaning bloc is likely to net 173 seats, putting them just below the number needed for a majority. So far, 95 percent of the votes have been counted, and these are just projections, of course, but the results are likely to hold.

Swedish election result in 2026 if only Swedes and European migrants would have voted:

The right - 181 seats
The left - 168 seats

Actual Swedish election result

The right - 173 seats
The left - 176 seats

The left wouldn’t have won the the election without non-Europeans pic.twitter.com/fqUO3v0lv1
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 14, 2026

Nobody is disputing that the margin of victory was Muslim voters, who cast their ballots overwhelmingly for left-leaning parties in the likely ruling coalition. In Muslim dominated areas, the left-wing parties gained almost 100 percent of the votes.
The shift in the number of votes between the parties was negligible — the two major blocs in Parliament received almost the same percentage of votes as in the last election. One factor drove the results almost entirely: a demographic shift in the voting base over the past few years. A few hundred thousand Swedish voters had died, and a few hundred thousand new migrants were granted citizenship.