A great sound and fury, signifying nothing (Update: It's even worse than I thought)

Admittedly, it’s difficult, even impossible to wage war when the country’s opposing political party, including its meda branch, a quarter of your own party and 65% of the country is howling for it to end, but Trump’s repeated vows to stop Iran’s nuclear program, support for terrorism and its attacks on Israel, and his countless boasts that “peace is at hand:, only to cave on everything in the end, thereby proving his critics right, and adopting as his own strategy Vermont’s Senator Aiken suggested as the path to ending the Vietnam war: “declare victory and get out”, is … disappointing.

Posted on June 15, 2026 by Scott Johnson

Waiting for memo

President Trump has announced the completion of an interim deal with Iran. The deal is reflected in a memorandum of understanding that has yet to be made public by the White House. Perhaps that is because the deal will not be signed until Friday (in Switzerland). Perhaps that is because a wrinkle or two remain to be “ironed out,” as the Wall Street Journal puts it in paragraph six its story (“One senior U.S. official said that while the U.S. was hopeful a formal deal would be struck this week, there were still some details to be ironed out”). According to the Journal, “final details” will be worked on “in the coming days…”

The leading feature of the deal reported at this time is the restoration of the status quo ante in the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn’t smell like victory. It reeks of desperation. According to Trump at the time, the April ceasefire was “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” Query how many times the Persians get to sell us the same rug.

The roles of Pakistan and Qatar in arranging the pending deal also seem like a hint that the terms represent something less than a win for the United States. The reported structure of the deal as a 60-day ceasefire is yet another hint that the terms favor Iran. They are playing for time and “playing us for suckers,” as Trump himself put it a few days ago.

According to the Journal:

The agreement is believed to pave the way for a 60-day period of negotiations over Tehran’s controversial nuclear program, which the U.S. suspects could be used to develop a nuclear weapon. In exchange for curbs on the program, Iran expects access to billions of dollars of cash blocked abroad and an end to sanctions that have stifled its economy….

Trump said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Sunday that the deal includes an agreement from Iran not to obtain nuclear weapons. But there was no mention of this in his social-media posts late Sunday. Trump also expressed no urgency to extract nuclear material from Iran, saying that could come later.

“We’ll get the nuclear dust later on when we’re ready to go in and do it. I’d say over the next month or two, there’s no rush,” he said in the interview. He called it “harmless.”

Trump said he wasn’t as concerned about changing Iran’s regime as some of his critics.

“As far as regime change, I never cared about regime change. This is the third group we’ve dealt with, and this is the most rational group yet,” Trump said.

JohnsonL “At this point Trump speaks more highly of the Iranian authorities than he does of our Israeli ally. That too is a hint.”

UPDATE: Here’s what Trump apparently has agreed to: We’re going to refill their coffers, thereby enabling them to resume funding their worldwide terror proxies and continue in power; return to the Obama policy of trusting their pinky-swear that, although they’ll continue to produce enriched uranium, they won’t use it to make nuclear weapons; and stop Israel from retaliating against Hezbollah’s conducting a daily missile bombardment. And that’s justthe start of our capitulation.

Iranian Mehr News Agency has published the supposed 14 clauses of the MOU

$12 billion of Iran's frozen funds to be released before negotiations begin, with another $12 billion during the 60-day final negotiation window. 

Oil and petrochemical sanctions suspended. 

Full naval blockade lifted within 30 days.

The U.S. commits to non-interference in Iranian affairs, withdrawal of forces from around Iran, and no new sanctions or force deployments during negotiations. 

An immediate ceasefire is required on all fronts, including Lebanon. 

The Strait of Hormuz reopens within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.

Iran reaffirms its NPT commitment not to produce nuclear weapons. 

A 60-day window is set to negotiate a final deal covering nuclear issues and full sanctions removal. 

The U.S. and allies must also present reconstruction plans worth at least $300 billion.

Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups are removed from the agenda entirely. 

No final negotiations begin until the $12 billion is released, oil sanctions are suspended, and the blockade is lifted.

A supervisory mechanism will oversee implementation, with any final agreement approved by UN Security Council resolution.